Monday Fantasy News 8/31/09
Aug 31, 2009 Blog
TheKnicksBlog.com had an article about the possibility of Monta Ellis being traded to NY. I don’t see it happening unless some real quality gets traded in return to Golden State. I like Stephen Curry as much as the next guy, but he isn’t ready to start, although his speculative fantasy value might rise with a trade of Jackson and Ellis. The problem with trading Ellis is his salary-66 million over 6 years.
The BleacherReport.com with an article on new Toronto Raptor, Marco Belinelli. Belinelli never really got a shot in Golden State and it looks like he is probably just another Jason Kapono for the Raptors. I’ll reserve judgment on his fantasy status until I see how much of a chance Toronto is willing to give him. He might be a useful H2H situational fantasy player as one of those guys you use late in the week if you really need some 3’s and can sacrifice other categories.
PeachtreeHoops.com takes a look at Atlanta 6th man Jamal Crawford. Crawford is definitely one of those players who is better in fantasy than in real life, mainly due to his defense. Crawford is stuck behind Bibby and J. Johnson this season, although he may see good minutes since he can play point and shooting guard. When he is hot he can put up good numbers. The real daily fantasy play here though comes from the defensive ineptness of Crawford and Bibby. There will be some great matchups available in daily games from opposing PGs, especially if Crawford and Bibby end up on the court at the same time.
An update on Yao Ming’s injury from ESPN and speculation that he may play sometime in the 209-2010 season. I doubt Houston is going to risk a career threatening injury to give Ming any serious time this season, especially once they are out of contention. Drafting him strictly depends on how many useless bench spots your league carries.
Mikki Moore signed by the Golden State Warriors. Not a positive sign for the fantasy value of Anthony Randolph but we’ll wait and see how the two work together. Randolph is probably still a nice sleeper with Moore as a backup. Of course it is the Ellis/Jackson circus right now so anything is possible.
Speaking of circus acts, Fanhouse posted a list of players that seem to always be making trouble someplace. The players on this list are daily fantasy staples, but can sometimes wreck you day with their attitude.
More speculation on a trade destination for Stephen Jackson, this time from Dime Magazine.
Sunday Quick Hits 8/30/09
Aug 30, 2009 Blog
Not much happening in the NBA this week but I’ll review what I’ve seen that may be of fantasy interest.
Stephen Jackson says he wants out of Golden State and several of his destinations include Dallas, Cleveland and New York. The Knicks would be a great fit for his fantasy stats, but the Cavs and Mavericks would likely see his fantasy value tank.
The NBA suspended Jason Richardson for the first two games of the season and JR Smith for the first seven games of the season so remember this when setting daily rosters.
Iverson hasn’t signed anywhere, but the latest rumor is Memphis. Not sure how his fantasy value will be helped with Conley and Mayo eating up minutes.
The Rubio saga continues as it looks more and more like he’ll sign overseas. Slide Flynn up the rankings.
The Michael Beasley rehab event was blown way out of proportion by the media, although Beasley didn’t help himself any with his Twitter posts. Maybe he was just having one last binge before rehab, who knows. I’m sliding him further down my draft rankings by the day.
Nice article from Hoopsworld detailing what each NBA team must do this season to avoid disaster.
Ex-ref Donaghy went back to prison for violating probation. What an idiot that guy is.
NY can’t seem to get David Lee signed and it looks like he may hold out. Wish they would lock him up so his fantasy value could be determined. The longer this goes on, the further down the rankings he will slide.
Not many new signings: Joe Smith with Atlanta, Johan Petro with Denver, Adonal Foyle with Orlando and Sean Marks with New Orleans.
Bill Laimbeer is quietly sliding up the NBA coaching pecking order. ESPN reports he resigned from the Detroit Shock to serve as an assistant to Kurt Rambis in Minnesota. Reggie Theus is also joining the staff. Can’t wait to see Laimbeer as a head coach sometime soon.
Early Mock Drafts (8/27/09)
Aug 27, 2009 News
I’ve seen a couple of early mock drafts and thought I’d post links here so that you guys could check them out. These drafts are likely to have some big changes as we get closer to the regular season, but they are fun to get back into the fantasy basketball groove. The first mock fantasy draft is from CBS Sportsline. The second mock fantasy draft is from Rotoworld.com. Not sure I agree with all the picks, but any fantasy previews this early is a welcome sight!
If you want to practice your own mock drafting you can try out: MockDraftCentral.com, Fantasy Mock Drafts at CBSSports.com and RotoEvil.com.
Daily Fantasy Basketball Cash Game Strategy and Sites (8/27/09)
Aug 26, 2009 Daily Games
Daily fantasy basketball contests played for real money are becoming popular these days and this section of the site is dedicated to helping you pick a roster for those cash contests.
I play fantasy basketball at several of the sites including FantasySportsLive.com, Draftbug.com, PaperSports.com and Snapdraft.com. I play under the username of Tippy on each of the sites.
Each day I will post my roster selections and recommendations for the salary cap contests. These cash games definitely require skill and planning, which takes alot of time and information gathering. Hopefully, this section of the site can save you guys some valuable time when playing these daily games.
As the season gets closer, I’ll probably post a review of each of the sites to help you choose the one that best suits the kind of games you want to play.
The Key NBA Handicapping and Fantasy Analysis Statistic: Possessions (8/27/09)
Aug 26, 2009 Picks
Handicapping NBA games and playing fantasy basketball are very closely related and having a good grasp of one definitely improves the other. One of my favorite stats for making my NBA handicapping game picks AND setting my daily fantasy cash game rosters is the ‘possession’. The Possession statistic measures the ‘quantity’ of opportunities that a team gets to score points. All stats flow from this concept.
Possession is defined with the basic formula: Possessions=FGA+TO+(.4 x FTA)-OREB. Sometimes you will see .44 x FTA used but I normally just use .4 to make the math easier and quicker as I review the boxscores. Some also prefer to discount the entire possessions number by multiplying it by .96. I stick with the above formula.
To determine the number of possessions for the entire game, simply do the formula for each team and then add the number of possessions together and divide by 2.
Last season one of the teams with the highest number of possessions per game was Golden State. Plugging in their season numbers you get 7055 FGA + 1201 TO + (.4 x 2392) – 953 OREB = 8355/82 games = ~101 possessions per game. The scores of their games tended to be relatively high.
One of the slowest teams was the Detroit Pistons, who are known for their tough defense. Plugging in their numbers you get 6559 FGA + 973 TO + (.4 x 1849 FTA) – 949 OREB = 7397/82 games = ~89 possessions per game. The scores of their games tended to be relatively low.
If you were considering a totals bet, the possession figures should be the first statistic you look at. Once you understand possessions, you can see why Warriors games usually have higher totals numbers than Pistons games. The real trick is to determine where to put the line when you have a matchup of the Warriors versus the Pistons.
It should also be clear how a knowledge of the possessions statistic can help you with daily fantasy decisions. If you have to choose between two players, one playing against Golden State and one playing against Detroit, the roster decision becomes really easy given the possessions statistic and all the extra opportunities the fantasy player will have with Golden State as the opponent. This becomes really helpful in daily cash game fantasy contests with a salary cap. Many times the two players you are considering may have similar salaries, but the matchups make one player a much better deal than the other.
The possessions statistic is an important one, but sometimes can be misleading since it only measures quantity of opportunity. In the next post of this series I will take a look at qualifying the possessions statistic with the statistic of ‘efficiency’ using Offensive Ratings and Defensive Ratings. While Possessions measure ‘quantity’ of scoring opportunities, Off/Def Ratings measure ‘quality’ of scoring opportunities.
Tags: handicapping