Gone to Disney World, Be Back Saturday, October 3
Sep 26, 2009 Blog
My 6 year old has been looking forward to this for 3 months and it’s finally here!!! See you guys in a week.
Fantasy Sports Games Played for Real Money: Is it Gambling? (9/25/09)
Sep 25, 2009 Picks
I’m not sure how many of you are playing the daily fantasy contests that are popping up around the web, but I got into a conversation with someone recently about whether these fantasy games were considered ‘gambling’. In my opinion, they are absolutely gambling and as a smart gambler, you better treat them as such and heed the dangers that lurk within these fantasy gambling games.
The guy I was discussing the matter with based his argument on the fact that these were games of skill and were therefore not gambling. He even went as far as to say the goverment was even on his side, since they also consider them ‘games of skill’ and even made them legal to play. I had to disagree with him, the government is just wrong here. By the way, the government is the very same entity that brings you the various state lotteries. You think that isn’t gambling? Is there any skill at all to the lottery? But it is legal, right? How about betting on real basketball games, is that gambling? Is it legal? Does it require skill and work to analyze matchups to determine a great betting opportunity? Just because there is an issue of skill involved in something, that doesn’ t eliminate it from the category of ‘gambling’. Analyzing and betting real NBA games requires just as much work as analyzing matchups and choosing a fantasy team to bet on. Exact same skill, one is legal, one isn’t.
So what makes one legal and the other not? Is it the ‘chance’ or ‘luck’ factor? Is it the fact you can lose a real money bet on a last second fumble, miracle useless last second 3 pointer or missed kick? Doesn’t that happen in real life AND in fantasy contests? Maybe Gerald Wallace gets a concussion on the opening tip, you lose him and your fantasy team crashes and burns. Unlucky?
My point here isn’t to decide the legality of fantasy betting versus real game betting or whether the government draws arbitrary definitions in their ‘game of skill’ reasoning. My point here is that they are both gambling. So what should regular gamblers take away from this? That you better watch the things that would normally beat you as a gambler – THE JUICE.
I’ve bet on sports for a long time. I even had periods of time where I supported myself solely through sports betting. After thousands of bets, I’ve learned that it isn’t the last second field goal, the unexpected fumble or miracle 3 point shot that causes a gambler to lose. Those things all even out in the long run. I’ve probably won just as many bets in the last minute of the game as I’ve lost. The thing that never evens out is the juice that you pay on your bets. It grinds you down in the long run and if you don’t have some advantage against your competition, the juice will slowly make you a losing gambler.
From one gambler to another, I want you guys to realize the juice you are paying with these fantasy games and also how hard it is to overcome that handicap. If you guys realize that handicap and think you can overcome it due to some other edge that you have over the competion, then by all means go for it. But if you don’t have an edge or you don’t put in the necessary work to acquire that edge, then the massive juice on these games will beat you.
Consider this: regular sports betting in Vegas requires a bet 11 to win 10 proposition, which equates to needing 52.4% winners to break even. Sounds easy right? But how many of you guys can truly beat that percentage over an entire season? A majority of the bettors can’t, that is why Vegas and your local bookies thrive.
Now consider a site like Snapdraft.com ( I hate to single them out, but what they are doing is wrong and just shouldn’t be allowed). Snapdraft.com offers a bet 10 to win 6 proposition on their games. They rake 20% right off the top. It takes 62.5% winners just to break even at that site. No matter how good you think you might be, myself included, you cannot beat that juice over a season. You will lose. For example, say you decide to invest $200 and make 20 bets on Snapdraft at $10 each. You have a good night winning 11 bets and losing 9 bets. Pretty good record, you won more than you lost, hitting about 55% winners. There are guys in Vegas that would kill for a 55% record, and would also be very rich with that kind of winning percentage. But what was your bottom line on these fantasy games? You LOST $24.00 or about 11% of your $200 investment. Getting the picture now?
I’m not telling you guys not to play, I’m simply telling you to be smart gamblers. Shop around for the best commissions. Keep an eye on the bottom line and the juice. No matter how slick some of these fantasy game sites look, you have to remember that it is still gambling and you better treat is as such.
Good luck.
Friday Fantasy News (9/25/09)
Sep 25, 2009 Blog
Camps are getting closer and the newsflow is getting heavier. As you guys know, I try to keep the daily news (and the rest of the site) strictly relevant to fantasy basketball and individual players. You won’t find many rumors, photos, fluff articles, team financials or anything else that isn’t truly fantasy related. The Odom/Kardashian wedding and Ron Artest rap videos are entertaining, but not fantasy related. There are plenty of other sites where you can find entertainment, and while I might throw in some hot cheerleader photos every now and then, I’ll always try to keep it strictly fantasy focused. Just wanted to give a heads up as to why a lot of the NBA articles you see around the web aren’t covered here.
Dime Magazine reviews the Phoenix Suns’ defense and thinks it will be one of the league’s worst this season. Analysis: Lose Shaq, still have Nash, yeah, defense is going to suck. Phoenix should present a great fantasy opportunity every single night, but usually for the opposing players. Daily cash game players will definitely want to remember this one.
ThirdQuarterCollapse.com examines who should start in Rashard Lewis’ place while he serves his 10 game suspension to begin the season. Right now it comes down to Ryan Anderson and Brandon Bass and TQC compares both players’ stats. Analysis: Daily fantasy players can probably get a cheap PF to plug into their rosters in this situation for salary cap type games. Getting a cheap starter will allow you to spend more salary cap at another position.
RotoSynthesis with the results of a mock draft conducted by some the fantasy basketball experts from around the web.
Sports Illustrated article reviewing several position battles including C in Phoenix, SG in Cleveland, SG in Chicago, C in Houston and PG for the Lakers.
Dime Magazine reports that the Houston Rockets have signed Rashad McCants and brought him to camp on a non-guaranteed contract.
DallasBasketball.com reports that the Mavs will start Drew Gooden at Center this season. Analysis: He would be a great fit, but not exactly sure how many total minutes he will actually see. Keep an eye on this one.
Hoopsworld.com previews the 2009-2010 New Orleans Hornets.
NBA.com reports that the Knicks have finally signed David Lee. Analysis: A one year deal, so look for Lee to try to have a solid year for a new contract. Although, for players like Lee there may not be much money left in 2010 after the Big Dogs get theirs.
NetsAreScorching.com examines Tony Battie’s role with New Jersey.
Eddie Jordan on Lou Williams: “Attack, fast, quick point guard that gets to the rim … we’re going to give him all the opportunity in the world to be a 38-minute a night player and, you know what, in the NBA that means a lot.” Analysis: 38 minutes a night would definitely move Williams up my PG rankings. Use camp to see exactly what Williams role is going to be in Jordan’s offense.
Need4Sheed.com reports that the Pistons are giving Chucky Atkins a chance with a non-guaranteed contract.
BobcatsPlanet.com reports that Flip Murray has signed with Charlotte. $1.99 million for one year. Analysis: Good deal for Charlotte as it adds a very versatile backup player who can bring some offense off the bench. Murray should have the same role that he had last season in Atlanta.
Slam Online Top 50 series article on Andrew Iguodala.
GoldenStateofMind.com previews the Portland Trail Blazers.
StraightOuttaVancouver.com previews the Houston Rockets with some fantasy tips thrown in.
Nola.com examines Julian Wright’s chances of landing the starting SF spot in New Orleans. Analysis: I doubt that Wright gets the spot over Peja as this is probably one of those attempts to shake things up a little and get Peja to put forth a little more effort with the threat of job security. You never know though, so keep an eye on this battle throughout camp.
Thursday Fantasy News (9/24/09)
Sep 24, 2009 Blog
I’ve put up a new website review on the homepage in the daily games section for Fanduel.com. If you are a daily fantasy cash game player, give it a read and then check out the site. Just a reminder, I’ll be out next week for my trip to Disney. The excitement is building for my 6 year old! I’m also going to try and get the Small Forward rankings up by late Friday. I’ll try to hit the Power Forward and Center spots just as soon as I get back since drafts will start soon.
Sergio Gonzalez of CBSSports.com with fantasy tips on when to draft Dwight Howard, Tim Duncan’s age, Vince Carter’s injury history and some bench players who can help your fantasy team. Gonzalez is another person you will want to add to your fantasy favorites list, he has some good fantasy columns at CBS Sports.
Sergio Gonzalez of CBSSports.com with a list of players who have major fantasy position eligibility changes from last season.
If you are thinking of creating a fantasy basketball league, this article from BulletsForever.com is a must read. They go through just about every basic rule and setup requirment that you should consider and address to make your league run smoothly.
Elton Brand discusses his health. Analysis: Brand had a shoulder injury last season that required surgery and now says that he was also dealing with a leg injury. Remember, he also had a past achilles injury, so I’m not sure if the leg injury was incurred due to overcompensating for the achilles. He is definitely one of the guys on my injury watch list to determine his final fantasy ranking.
Cavalier Attitude with an in depth look at Cleveland’s rotation including stats, position battles, backups and roles.
Cleveland.com article on J.J. Hickson and his recovery from back problems. Analysis: With only Anderson Varejao ahead of him, Hickson might be a sleeper at the PF spot in very deep leagues.
MotownStringMusic.com discusses how much Ben Wallace might contribute this season. Analysis: I don’t think Wallace is going to be anything like the Wallace most people remember. Let the less skilled drafters who are drafting recognizable names based on past glory years overpay for him.
Slam Online Top 50 article on Caron Butler.
Slam Online Top 50 article on Rajon Rondo.
FourPointPlay.com with a good article on the strategy of ‘trading’ in fantasy basketball leagues.
GiveMeTheRock.com reviews the Yahoo Mock Draft feature. Analysis: I’ve used it a few times and it is definitely something that is worthwhile. GMTR’s review is pretty spot on. Any free practice at drafting can only help your real draft results.
BlazersEdge.com reviews the Portland defense for this season.
GoldenStateofMind.com previews the Phoenix Suns.
Yao Ming says he will not play during the 2009-2010 season. Analysis: For all you guys thinking about stashing him for a late season bonus, it’s pretty safe to let that idea go and use that roster spot to speculate on someone else.
Website Review: Fanduel.com (9/24/09)
Sep 24, 2009 Daily Games
I’ve been playing on a few of the newer sites lately and I’m going to take a look at Fanduel.com today and give you my opinion on some of the pros and cons of the site.
As we discussed in the last website review, payout and commissions are one of the most important things to me when playing daily fantasy cash games. The payout at Fanduel is a bet 10 to win 8 proposition which equates to a 55.5% winning percentage needed to break even. I have seen a few sites offer bet 11 to win 9, which is just a little better requiring only a 55.0% winning percentage to break even. As a comparison, Vegas odds usually require players to bet 11 to win 10, which equates to a 52.4% winning percentage needed to break even. I have been finding that the bet 10 to win 8 setup is pretty much becoming the standard online. Overall, the payout structure is good and in line with most of the other daily cash game sites.
The software is easy to use and setting up an account is simple and quick. Funding is through MasterCard, Visa, Discover, American Express and Paypal. I funded through my Paypal account and had no problems. I requested a small cashout just to see how fast it was executed and received an instant email from support requesting my Paypal info for the transfer. The transfer was completed within 10 minutes of my initial request. That kind of speed is very impressive and a good indication of the great customer support that Fanduel has.
I have played about 35 baseball contests at Fanduel (I play under ‘Tippy’ on Fanduel) and so far I have run into the same opponents several times. All of the contests are heads up games. Fanduel is a relatively new site and like most of the newer gaming sites, the player base is growing. They do have a very cool feature that allows you to sign up for a game and then send out a challenge to anyone else on the site inviting that player to play against you. It’s definitely a great way to settle things out with those guys who are always talking smack about how they are the greatest fantasy players ever! There are also several social interaction features on the way that will allow players to talk with each other and develop a community for fantasy fans.
Currently the site offers only one type of draft option which is very similar to the Yahoo autopick system. The owners of the site were kind enough to speak with me and they informed me that they are considering adding additional draft types in order to provide their player base with several popular options when it comes to drafting. I know alot of you like the salary cap games and I think Fanduel may offer those in the near future. The site currently offers contests for NFL, MLB and the NBA. NHL is also coming soon.
The present drafting procedure is a little different than many of the other sites and can best be described as a completely preset draft in which you pre-rank all of your starters and your backup picks prior to the actual draft. It is very similar to Yahoo autopick drafts which I’m sure most of you have played. You and your opponents pre-rank the players and then 5 minutes before the actual professional games start the computer randomly matches you against an opponent who signed up to play the same priced game (or matches you with the player you invited). Once matched, the draft is automatically conducted by the computer. Immediately upon completion of the draft you are sent an email with your team or you can just click on your account and go to your games to see your roster. It is a very simple setup and only takes a few minutes to pick your team (although if you are obsessed like me, you could spend an hour trying to figure out whether to pre-rank Kobe or Wade higher). You can play as many games as you want, just as long as there are enough other players in your selected price range for the computer to match you up against. Fanduel also has a cool feature that allows you to use the same roster for multiple games, which saves the the trouble of having to perform multiple pre-rankings . There is also another great feature that keeps track of your win-loss record for all the games you have played on the site.
Fanduel.com has free games so you can try out the software before depositing money, which is a great help so you don’t waste any money in your first couple of practice drafts. There is also a LiveChat function where you can ask for help if you get stuck (although I’m guessing they don’t offer advice on ranking Kobe and Wade). They also have a first time deposit bonus of $10 on any deposit. For you guys who have your own websites, Fanduel has an affiliate program for referrals. Fanduel also offers $5 for every friend that you refer who signs up and deposits.
Overall I think the site is very good and has the managment to grow it properly. Their commissions are competitive, the software is simple and dependable and customer service is excellent. Put Fanduel on your list of sites for the upcoming basketball season and if your ever want to play a game, send me an invitation to my player name, ‘Tippy’.