2010-2011 NBA Fantasy Basketball Center (C) Draft Rankings
Aug 31, 2010 Blog
2010-2011 NBA Fantasy Basketball Center Draft Rankings
Rankings for the Center position using our FPS Ranking System will be updated throughout the offseason. Updated rankings can always be found under the 2010-2011 Rankings Tab on the Fantasy Basketball Daily Homepage.
Updated October 16, 2010
Other Rankings: PG – SG – SF – PF
Also, Check out Daily Fantasy Basketball Cash Games at Fanduel.com and FantasySportsLive.com. Win $ Cash $ Daily Playing Fantasy Basketball!
Dwight Howard (37.4 FPS, 61.2 eFG%, 59.2 FT%, 35 MPG)
2009: 18.3pts/13.2reb/1.8ast/.9stl/2.8blk/3.3tov
It’s an easy selection for the top of the Center rankings, even though Howard has a few flaws. His biggest flaw is his free throw shooting. It’s not often that you see a player with a FG% (61.2%) that exceeds his FT% (59.2%), but Howard accomplished that feat last season. He’s also a little high in turnovers (3.3 per game) for a center. Howard’s free throw rate was 97.8 last season and I had to check that figure three times just to make sure it was right, because it just seems so outrageous. He got to the line 816 times on only 834 field goal attempts. Howard’s overall draft position will depend on whether you are in a H2H or Rotisserie league. He will easily go in the first round in a H2H league, while he might fall just a little in a traditional nine category Roto league. He’s a big help in the shotblocking category with 2.8 per game and he will even get you about a steal a game. His Usage rate in 2009 was 23.9 and should stay in that range for 2010. Don’t be scared of Howard’s bad FT%, especially in H2H leagues.
Brook Lopez (32.0 FPS, 49.9 eFG%, 81.7 FT%, 37 MPG)
2009: 18.8pts/8.6reb/2.3ast/.7stl/1.7blk/2.5tov
Lopez had a great rookie season in 2008 and made a big leap forward in his second season in 2009 and I think he can make even more improvement this year. His FG% of 49.9% is solid and he’s excellent at the line with a 81.7 FT%. However, his defensive rebound rate fell from 21.2 in 2008 to 17.5 last season and was one of the lowest of the top 10 centers. Hopefully, he can work on his rebounding and get back to somewhere around 10 rebounds a game. He’s a good shotblocker with 1.7 per game. Lopez’ free throw rate was 45.1, which got him to the line 6.2 times a game where he hit 81.7%. 27.1% of his 2009 scoring total came from the line. Troy Murphy is now with the Nets and maybe he can pull opposing PF’s to the perimeter so that Brook doesn’t have to deal with as many double teams, which should help his overall stat line.
Al Jefferson (30.6 FPS, 49.8 eFG%, 68.0 FT%, 33 MPG)
2009: 17.1pts/9.3reb/1.8ast/.8stl/1.3blk/1.8tov
Al Jefferson is my pick to surprise on the center rankings this year. Jefferson spent the first part of last season trying to recover from February 2009 ACL surgery on his right knee, but he still managed to get on the court for 76 games and got better as the season wore on and the knee improved. With a whole season under his belt to rehab and strengthen the knee, he should be ready to put up a great line in his new Utah home. The only concern with Jefferson is his defense, which is just horrible. Mehmet Okur is currently dealing with an achilles injury, so Jefferson should start at Center and I don’t see him giving up the spot even if Okur returns healthy. Jefferson’s minutes dipped to 32.4 per game in 2009, but much of the decrease was due to the physical limitations he had in November and December due to his recovering knee. His per/36 minute stats actually didn’t show much decline at all in the quality of his play. He’s a good scorer (17.1 per game), rebounder (9.3 per game) and shotblocker (1.3 per game). His free throw rate is a little low at 23.6, however that might have been a result of trying to conciously avoid contact to keep the knee healthy. I’m expecting Jefferson to have a great year with the Jazz.
Joakim Noah (26.2 FPS, 50.4 eFG%, 74.4 FT%, 30 MPG)
2009: 10.7pts/11.0reb/2.1ast/.5stl/1.6blk/1.8tov
Noah is a great talent, but staying on the court was a problem for him in 2009. He suffered with plantar fasciitis for much of the season which limited his minutes and caused him to miss 18 games. That condition should be fully healed, but you will want to keep an eye on it this preseason before determining Noah’s final draft ranking. He is a great rebounder with a defensvie rebounding rate of 27.6, which was good for 11.0 rebounds per game. He’s a good shotblocker (1.6 per game) and plays great defense. His shooting percentages (50.4 eFG% and 74.4 FT%) are decent for a big man. Noah is good at getting to the line with a free throw rate of 42.1 and hits at a 74.4% rate. He’s got a Jumper/Inside split of 24%/76%. Keep an eye on his health and be ready to take him in the first five centers off the board if he looks fully recovered.
Al Horford (28.5 FPS, 55.2 eFG%, 78.9 FT%, 35 MPG)
2009: 14.2pts/9.9reb/2.3ast/.7stl/1.1blk/1.5tov
Sometimes, as a fantasy owner, you just want a guy you can plug in at Center and just not worry about him. Well, Horford is that guy. He isn’t flashy, but he is dependable and you know you’re probably getting something close to 14 points and 10 rebounds a night with a block thrown in and good shooting percentages. Horford has a Jumper/Inside split of 51%/49% and a free throw rate of 32.0, which got him to the line 3.3 times a game where he converted at a 78.9% rate. He’s got a defensive rebounding rate of 23.3 and an offensive rebounding rate of 9.6. Horford only missed a single game last season and should be on the court full time this year, so grab him if you want a dependable big man. He doesn’t have much upside, but he doesn’t have much downside either.
Marc Gasol (29.5 FPS, 58.1 eFG%, 67.0 FT%, 36 MPG)
2009: 14.6pts/9.3reb/2.4ast/1.0stl/1.6blk/2.0tov
Gasol’s season was ended by a neck injury, but he’s playing for Spain this summer and looks fully recovered. A neck injury should be much easier to recover from, and less likely to reoccur, than a knee, foot or ankle injury. Gasol had a Jumper/Inside split of 35%/65% with a free throw rate of 57.8 which got him to the line 5.4 times a game where he converted at a weak 67.0% rate. He needs to improve the free throw shooting. 25.3% of his scoring total came from the line. His 58.1 eFG% is excellent. He’s a good shotblocker with 1.6 per game and will even get you 1.0 steals per game. His rebounding is solid with a defensive rebounding rate of 20.5 and an offensive rebounding rate of 9.8.
Andreas Bargnani (26.5 FPS, 52.3 eFG%, 77.4 FT%, 35 MPG)
2009: 17.2pts/6.2reb/1.2ast/.3stl/1.4blk/1.5tov
Bargnani is a scoring center but his rebounding is very weak, so keep that in mind when you are determining exactly what you want to accomplish with you draft pick at center. Bargnani’s defensive rebounding rate is 15.9 and his offensive rebounding rate is just 4.6. He does somehow manage to block 1.4 shots per game. He’s also a very good three point shooter, which is a unique characteristic for a center and one you could use to build your H2H fantasy team. He put up 4.1 threes per game and hit 37% of them. His Jumper/Inside split of 74%/26% shows his perimenter orientation and his low free throw rate of 20.5 shows that he doesn’t draw contact. His draft ranking will really depend on what you want from your starting center.
Andrew Bogut (32.2 FPS, 52.0 eFG%, 62.9 FT%, 33 MPG)
2009: 15.9pts/10.2reb/1.8ast/.6stl/2.5blk/1.9tov
Bogut was having a huge breakout season before injuring his shoulder, elbow and hand in an April fall. I have ranked him pretty high this early, but that could change, depending on the health of his elbow. I’ll move him ahead of Noah if he’s healthy. Bogut is an excellent shotblocker with 2.5 per game last year. He is weak in the free throw category with a 62.9 FT%, but luckily his low free throw rate of 26.0 only got him to the line 3.4 times per game. Bogut is an excellent defensive player and defensive rebounder. His Usage rate took a big jump to 23.3 last season and hopefully he can return healthy and maintain that number.
Chris Kaman (29.9 FPS, 49.0 eFG%, 74.9 FT%, 35 MPG)
2009: 18.5pts/9.3reb/1.6ast/.5stl/1.2blk/2.9tov
Kaman started out the 2009 season on fire but tailed off a little after the all-star break. His final numbers were excellent though. His Jumper/Inside split was 51%/49%, with a free throw rate of 25.5 which was good for 4.0 attempts per game where he hit at a 74.9% rate. Kaman had a defensive rebounding rate of 23.2 and an offensive rebounding rate of 8.1 which allowed him to grab 9.3 rebounds a game. He added 1.2 blocked shots per game, but his defense is average. He is a great value pick in the middle rounds.
Roy Hibbert (21.6 FPS, 49.7 eFG%, 75.4 FT%, 25 MPG)
2009: 11.7pts/5.7reb/2.0ast/.4stl/1.6blk/1.8tov
Hibbert will get a chance to shine this season now that Troy Murphy has been traded. His biggest problem will be getting his fouls under control. He collected 3.5 fouls a game in only 25 minutes and there were many games last season where he was on the bench in the first half after picking up three quick fouls. This season the Pacers have no other decent big men, so offenses are going to attack Hibbert in hopes of getting him in foul trouble. Hibbert also needs to work on his defensive rebounding, where he put up a weak 15.5 rebounding rate. His offensive rebounding rate was still pretty good at 9.4. He blocked 1.6 shots a game. His shooting percentages (49.7 eFG% and 75.4 FT%) won’t kill you. Keep an eye on any moves by the Pacers to try and bring in another big man before the season starts.
Andrew Bynum (26.3 FPS, 57.0 eFG%, 73.9 FT%, 31 MPG)
2009: 15.0pts/8.3reb/1.0ast/.5stl/1.4blk/1.8tov
Bynum underwent surgery in late July to repair a torn miniscus in his knee and nobody is exactly sure how long recovery is going to take. The knee is really scaring me and I’m not sure why he didn’t have the surgery immediately after the playoffs rather than waiting until almost August to have it done. His final ranking will depend on his health, but I’m ranking him on the expectation that he’ll be ready for the season. Bynum is only 23 years old, but he’s a huge talent and an important part of the championship Lakers. He’s a good defensive player and swatted 1.4 shots a game. His 57.0 eFG% is excellent and his 73.9 FT% won’t kill you. He’s a good rebounder with a 20.4 defensive rebounding rate and 10.1 offensive rebounding rate. Keep an eye on how the knee heals and adjust his ranking accordingly.
Marcus Camby (27.2 FPS, 47.7 eFG%, 63.9 FT%, 32 MPG)
2009: 7.5pts/11.8reb/2.5ast/1.3stl/2.0blk/1.2tov
Camby is on the opposite extreme from Andreas Bargnani. His value comes from rebounding (11.8 per game), steals (1.3 per game) and blocks (2.0 per game). He’s extremely weak in scoring (7.5 per game) and percentages (47.7 eFG% and 63.9 FT%). His lack of involvement in the team’s offense is illustrated by his low Usage rate of only 12.8. Camby is an excellent defensive player, but he’s getting up there in age at 36 years old and that is going to make it tough to keep banging inside with the young guys. Portland is expecting Greg Oden to be healthy this season, so Camby could see a big reduction in minutes to keep him fresh. Keep an eye on Oden’s development and Camby’s health in camp before assigning his final draft ranking.
Nene Hilario (27.2 FPS, 58.7 eFG%, 70.4 FT%, 34 MPG)
2009: 13.8pts/7.6reb/2.5ast/1.4stl/1.0blk/1.5tov
Nene is having some injury problems this summer which have caused him to miss playing for Brazil in the FIBA. I’m not exactly sure of the severity of the leg problems, but it’s something that could alter his draft ranking as camp starts. He’s only missed 5 games in the last two seasons, so hopefully this isn’t anything serious. Nene had a good season in 2009 putting up 13.8 points a game with a 58.7 eFG%. His Jumper/Inside split was 26%/74% and he had a free throw rate of 58.0 which got him to the line a career high 5.1 times where he converted at a 70.4% rate. He’s a good defensive player and managed to put up 1.4 steals and 1.0 blocks. Keep an eye on his leg injury, as well as the trade status of Carmelo Anthony and injury status of Kenyon Martin, to determine Nene’s final ranking.
Samuel Dalembert (21.6 FPS, 54.5 eFG%, 72.9 FT%, 26 MPG)
2009: 8.1pts/9.6reb/.8ast/.5stl/1.8blk/1.5tov
Dalembert’s problem has always seemed to be his work ethic and attitude, so maybe a move out of Philly can get him going again. He now finds himself on a pretty decent Kings roster with the center spot all to himself. Dalembert is an excellent rebounder, posting a defensive rebounding rate of 30.7 and an offensive rebounding rate of 13.1 last season, which was good for 9.6 rebounds in only 25.9 minutes a night. He can be a good defensive player when he wants and managed to put up 1.8 blocks. He’s got a Jumper/Inside split of 37%/63% which allowed him to put up a very efficient 54.5 eFG%. Keep an eye on what role the Kings have planned for him in camp.
Emeka Okafor (23.1 FPS, 53.0 eFG%, 56.2 FT%, 29 MPG)
2009: 10.4pts/9.0reb/.7ast/.7stl/1.5blk/1.4tov
Okafor’s defense was so bad last season that he found himself on the bench in the fourth quarter of many games, which decreased his minutes per game to a career low 28.9 a night. Opposing centers put up a whopping 58.6 eFG% against him. He’s going to have to play better defense to earn those minutes back and improve his fantasy value. Okafor is a terrible free throw shooter with a 50.9 career FT%. He’s a good rebounder and put up a defensive rebounding rate of 24.7 and an offensive rebounding rate of 12.2, which allowed him to pick up 9.0 rebounds a game. He’s also a pretty decent shotblocker with 1.5 per game. The Hornets gained Trevor Ariza’s defense, so maybe that will take some of the defensive pressure off Okafor. See how it plays out in camp.
Robin Lopez (15.0 FPS, 58.8 eFG%, 70.4 FT%, 20 MPG)
2009: 8.4pts/4.9reb/.1ast/.2stl/1.0blk/.8tov
Lopez is going to get a shot at a bigger role with Phoenix this season now that Amare is gone, but he’s going to have to improve on his 15.6 defensive rebounding rate and his 70.4 FT%. He’s a high energy guy and might be better suited for a backup role with the second unit. Keep an eye on his role in camp.
Yao Ming (2008) (33.0 FPS, 54.9 eFG%, 86.6 FT%, 34 MPG)
2008: 19.7pts/9.9reb/1.8ast/.4stl/1.9blk/3.0tov
I listed Ming’s 2008 stats just to provide an idea of what to expect if he can return healthy from the broken foot that sidelined him for the 2009 season. His final ranking all depends on his health, but I think he is worthy of taking a shot on somewhere around this ranking and definitely higher if the foot looks good. Ming’s career 83.2 FT% disproves the myth that big men can’t shoot free throws. He’s also got a pretty good 52.5 career eFG%. His career defensive rebounding rate is 23.3 and his career offensive rebounding rate is 9.3, good for 9.3 rebounds a game. He’s also got a career average of 1.9 blocks per game. Ming is a gamble this season, how lucky do you feel?
Channing Frye (20.4 FPS, 57.3 eFG%, 81.0 FT%, 27 MPG)
2009: 11.2pts/5.3reb/1.4ast/.8stl/.9blk/.9tov
Channing Frye was a nice surprise last year and he could play an even bigger role for the Suns now that Amare Stoudemire has been traded. Frye is an excellent shooter (57.3 eFG%) and he is deadly with the three point shot, putting up 4.8 per game and hitting 44%. He’s a guy you want to grab if you want some threes from your center spot. His rebounding is a little weak with a defensive rebounding rate of 17.6 and an offensive rebounding rate of 3.6. He has a hard time guarding bigger centers and doesn’t block many shots, with only .9 blocks a night. He also has a hard time creating any offense of his own and was assisted on a very high 84% of his shots, but hopefully Steve Nash can keep finding him. Frye’s draft ranking really depends on what stats you want from your center position.
Jermaine O’Neal (23.6 FPS, 52.9 eFG%, 72.0 FT%, 29 MPG)
2009: 13.6pts/6.9reb/1.3ast/.4stl/1.4blk/1.8tov
J. O’Neal had a pretty good season for a 32 year old center with balky knees. This year he moves to the Celtics where he will platoon with Shaq O’Neal. Two O’Neal’s on the Celtics, and I’m pretty sure neither one of them is Irish. Jermaine could once again see around 28-30 minutes, but I think his Usage rate will decline from 2009’s 22.9 figure. The Celtics just have too many other more efficient offensive weapons. He’s still a solid rebounder posting a defensive rebound rating of 20.7 and an offensive rebound rating of 9.9, while also blocking 1.4 shots a game. J. O’Neal has a Jumper/Inside split of 67%/33% which is a little different than his younger days when he lived inside.
Brendan Haywood (22.5 FPS, 56.2 eFG%, 62.0 FT%, 31 MPG)
2009: 9.1pts/9.3reb/.6ast/.3stl/2.1blk/1.3tov
The move from Washington to Dallas really crushed Haywood’s fantasy value as he saw a decline in almost every category, especially minutes. His per/36 stats were still similar to his career numbers, so it appears to the be the lack of minutes, not ability, that is hurting his fantasy value. It probably won’t get much better for Haywood this season since he will be splitting time with Tyson Chandler. Haywood is a good rebounder putting up a defensive rebound rating of 21.5 and an offensive rebounding rating of 13.5, while adding 2.1 blocks. He has a Jumper/Inside split of 17%/83% and a free throw rate of 49.9 which got him to the line 3.7 times a game where he converted at a very poor 62.0% rate. His eFG% was excellent at 56.2%, due to all the opportunities at the rim. See how the playing time is going to be distributed between Haywood and Chandler before determining his final ranking.
JaVale McGee (FPS 13.8, 50.8 eFG%, 63.8 FT%, 16 MPG)
2009: 6.4pts/4.1reb/.2ast/.3stl/1.7blk/.9tov
McGee is going to be a good center in a couple of years, but right now he’s probably about where Roy Hibbert was last season. He’s going to get a shot at decent minutes and you should keep an eye on him this preseason to see what his role is going to be. The Wizards have Andray Blatche and Yi Jianlian, so McGee could get pinched on minutes if he doesn’t play good defense. McGee needs to work on his 63.8 FT% and his 18.7 defensive rebounding rate. He is a very good shotblocker with 1.7 in only 16 minutes a night.
Tyson Chandler (14.1 FPS, 57.4 eFG%, 73.2 FT%, 23 MPG)
2009: 6.5pts/6.3reb/.3ast/.3stl/1.1blk/1.8tov
Chandler will probably settle into a backup role behind Brendan Haywood and should only be considered a late round flier. He’s also a huge injury risk.
Anderson Varejao – He’s locked up the starting center spot for Cleveland and will bring energy and rebounding. He might also find himself asked to score a little more than last season. Good late round value.
Darko Milicic – Minnesota really was serious about starting Darko this season at center. He’s going to get minutes and he seems fairly happy in Minnesota so maybe he will give full effort.
Andris Biedrins (17.3 FPS, 59.1 eFG%, 16.0 FT%, 23 MPG)
2009: 5.0pts/7.8reb/1.7ast/.6stl/1.3blk/1.0tov
I’m not sure that Biedrins is even draftable this season. And yes, that 16.0 FT% is correct. Just horrible. I don’t want to completely write him off yet, because there may be some issue or injury from last season that isn’t public, but keep an eye on him during camp. Give him a gamble is he’s showing any improvement.
Shaquille O’Neal (21.2 FPS, 56.6 eFG%, 49.6 FT%, 24 MPG)
2009: 12.0pts/6.7reb/1.5ast/.3stl/1.2blk/2.0tov
Shaq is chasing a ring with Boston this season and he will platoon with Jermaine O’Neal until Kendrick Perkins returns. He should get about 20 minutes a night and could put up stats similar to his 2009 stats with the Cavs. You know about his horrible free throw shooting, but the impact has lessened over time since Shaq only gets about 4.3 free throw attempts per game these days. You can draft him if you just like having Shaq on your team, but don’t expect production anywhere close to his past reputation.
Joel Anthony – He’s going to get minutes for Miami and he you need blocks, he could be your guy.
Other Centers who could make their way onto the rankings as the season approaches:
Greg Oden – I’m just not a believer yet. He’s got to get past Marcus Camby for significant minutes. We’ll see.
Erick Dampier – He’s still with Charlotte, but he’s probably going to be waived. His final landing spot will determine his fantasy value.
Ben Wallace – He’s back with Detroit and I’m going to wait to see how his knees are and what kind of minutes the Pistons have planned for him.
Brad Miller – He’s in Houston now and if Yao Ming doesn’t fully recover, Miller could be their center. Regardless, he’s going to get minutes.
Mehmet Okur – Okur is trying to recover from an achilles problem and it’s uncertain when he’s going to be ready. Al Jefferson is probably the new center in Utah anyway, so I’m not sure what role Okur is going to have even when healthy.
Nenad Krstic – The chairthrower should still get minutes in OKC, but I’m not sure how many.
Nick Collison – He’ll be splitting minutes with Krstic and newly drafted Cole Aldrich.
Zydrunas Ilgauskas/Joel Anthony – They should be splitting minutes in Miami, but will either one ever get to touch the basketball?
Spencer Hawes – Hawes has talent and he’s now in Philly with a chance to grab some center minutes there.
Others considered: Anthony Tolliver, Darius Songaila, Nazr Mohammed, Ronny Turiaf, Tiago Splitter, Timofey Mozgov, DeMarcus Cousins.
Fantasy Basketball Mock Draft Recap
Aug 30, 2010 Blog
I participated in my first mock draft of the season last Thursday night and I figured I’d post the roster and explain some of the picks. I showed up at the last minute to the draft, so someone had the comedic idea to assign me the draft name ‘Fantasy god’ before I got there. Not funny guys. Thanks again to Jason at fBasketballBlog.com for setting it up. You can check out Jason’s review of the entire draft at fBasketballBlog.com. Henry at WeaksideHelp.com also posted a review of the draft and his roster selections.
The roster settings were 3 starting guards, 3 starting forwards, 2 starting centers, 2 utility players and 4 bench spots. I was assigned the number 7 draft slot. It’s also important to note that this is a H2H league setup. Here are the entire draft results.
Read the rest of this entry »
2010-2011 NBA Fantasy Basketball Power Forward (PF) Draft Rankings
Aug 29, 2010 Blog
2010-2011 NBA Fantasy Basketball Power Forward Draft Rankings
Rankings for the Power Forward position using our FPS Ranking System will be updated throughout the offseason. Updated rankings can always be found under the 2010-2011 Rankings Tab on the Fantasy Basketball Daily Homepage.
Updated October 16, 2010
Other Rankings: PG – SG – SF – C
Also, Check out Daily Fantasy Basketball Cash Games at Fanduel.com and FantasySportsLive.com. Win $ Cash $ Daily Playing Fantasy Basketball!
Dirk Nowitzki (37.4 FPS, 49.8 eFG%, 91.5 FT%, 38 MPG)
2009: 25.0pts/7.7reb/2.7ast/.9stl/1.0blk/1.8tov
Nowitzki gets the top spot on the PF board this year because of his consistent production, dependability and scoring ability. The guy has only missed 31 games in the last 11 seasons. He’s excellent from the field (49.8 eFG%) and the line (91.5 FT%). Dirk’s Jumper/Inside split is 83%/17%, which is very perimeter oriented for a 7 foot power forward. Even with his perimeter game, he still managed to grab 7.7 rebounds and block 1.0 shots a game. He has a free throw rate of 39.2, which was good for 586 trips to the line where he converted 91.5%. His three point shooting took a big dip lastyear to only 121 attempts, which was a career low, however he still managed to hit them at a 42% rate. Dallas should be able to make a good run this season and Dirk should lead the way.
Amare Stoudemire (33.6 FPS, 55.7 eFG%, 77.1 FT%, 35 MPG)
2009: 23.1pts/8.9reb/1.0ast/.6stl/1.0blk/2.6tov
Stoudemire has a huge upside in New York this season which justifies ranking him number two. He bounced back nicely from the 20o8 eye injury and was able to play all 82 games last season. If David Lee can produce huge stats in New York, then Amare should be able to exceed that production since the team really hasn’t changed that much. The question to watch in camp is how much Stoudemire will miss Steve Nash and how he will mesh with Raymond Felton. Stoudemire has a Jumper/Inside split of 51%/49% which is a good bit different than Nowitzki’s perimeter game. He gets to the line with a 50.0 free throw rate which allowed him to take 632 free throws last year, hitting 77.1%. He is also a huge help in the FG% category putting up a 55.7 FG% on 1264 shots. Amare had a Usage rate of 27.3 in Phoenix and I expect that he will exceed that number in New York.
David Lee (36.2 FPS, 54.5 eFG%, 81.2 FT%, 37 MPG)
2009: 20.2pts/11.7reb/3.6ast/1.0stl/.5blk/2.3tov
I’m probably going to catch a lot of heat for ranking Lee this high, but I think he could have a monster year with Golden State. The Warriors run at the highest pace in the league and Lee has shown that he can play that kind of game. The only problem that he may encounter is that on some nights much of the scoring will come from Monta Ellis and Stephen Curry, depending on what kind of defense the Warriors are facing. Lee is an excellent rebounder and should again be able to exceed 11.0 rebounds a game, especially given the opportunities provided by the fast pace of a Warriors game. The Warriors were dead last in both defensive and offensive rebounding rate, so Lee doesn’t have much competition for rebounds and he should improve the Warriors in that category. He could be a good player to pad the rebounds column if you are leaning toward building your fantasy team around that category. He’s also a good passer, picking up 3.6 assists per game last year, but he doesn’t give you many blocked shots, swatting only .5 a game in 2009. Scoring shouldn’t be a problem since Stephen Curry can get him the ball plenty. He’s not much of an injury risk, missing only 9 games in the last two seasons.
Pau Gasol (35.4 FPS, 53.6 eF%, 79.0 FT%, 37 MPG)
2009: 18.3pts/11.3reb/3.4ast/.6tl/1.7blk/2.2tov
The knock on Gasol is his injury risk. He missed 17 games in 2009, 16 games in 2007 and 23 games in 2006. If he can stay healthy, then he should be worthy of the number four spot in the rankings. Gasol had a career year rebounding in 2009, but I expect that is largely due to the injury to Andrew Bynum, so that number will come down if Bynum returns healthy this season. He’s a good passer for a big man and put up 3.4 assists last year. His Jumper/Inside split is 39%/61% and he doesn’t shoot the three. Playing almost exclusively inside, he is a good source of blocks with 1.7 per game. He has a free throw rate of 42.9 which got him to the line 362 times, where he converted 79.0%. I expect that Gasol will put up a similar line in 2010, minus a couple of rebounds.
Chris Bosh (38.0 FPS, 52.2 eFG%, 79.7 FT%, 36 MPG)
2009: 24.0pts/10.8reb/2.4ast/.6stl/1.0blk/2.4tov
I’m not sure exactly what to expect from Chris Bosh this season, but I think he could have a good year. He should be able to grab a ton of rebounds since Miami is a little thin at Center, much like the Raptors were with the weak rebounding Bargnani. His scoring could dip from the 24.0 per game he put up last season and he’ll also probably see a decline from last season’s 28.7 Usage rate. He’s a decent shotblocker with 1.0 per game. He has a Jumper/Inside split of 54%/46% and draws a lot of contact, producing a free throw rate of 50.9, which got him to the line 590 times where he converted at a 79.7% rate. Bosh is a guy that should be watched closely in the preseason to determine exactly what his role is going to be.
Carlos Boozer (34.4 FPS, 56.2 eFG%, 74.2 FT%, 34 MPG)
2009: 19.5pts/11.2reb/3.2ast/1.1stl/.5blk/2.7tov
UPDATE: Broken Hand, out 6-8 weeks.
Boozer’s problem has never been talent, but rather poor attitude and motivation. I think he has finally found a place where he will be happier, which should allow him to bring his A game every night. Boozer is an excellent shooter with a 54.1% career FG%. He’s also a good defensive player which should keep him in the good graces of defensive minded new head coach Tom Thibodeau. Boozer has a Jumper/Inside split of 49%/51% and a free throw rate of 35.0. He doesn’t block many shots (.5 per game) but he can help you in the steals category (1.1 per game). He doesn’t shoot the three ball and his free throw percentage is a little weak at 74.2%. He’s a good passer and managed 3.2 assists last season in Utah. He should work very well on the pick and roll with Derrick Rose.
Josh Smith (33.6 FPS, 50.5 eFG%, 61.8 FT%, 36 MPG)
2009: 15.7pts/8.7reb/4.2ast/1.6stl/2.1blk/2.4tov
Josh Smith fills the stat sheet almost every night. He is one of the rare players that excels in steals (1.6 per game) and blocks (2.1 per game), while still maintaining good scoring (15.7 per game), rebounding (8.7 per game) and assists (4.2 per game). The guy can do it all. The biggest adjustment to Smith’s game in the last couple of years was that he just quit shooting the long range jumpers and decided to start taking it to the basket. He produced a Jumper/Inside split of 36%/64%, which increased his FG% to 50.5%, well above the low 40’s he was shooting prior to making the change. The only weakness in Smith’s game is his 66.8% career free throw shooting which can hurt a little since he has a high free throw rate of 42.2, which got him 422 attempts last year. He’s a great defensive player. Smith is only 25 years old and has matured a lot over the last couple of seasons. He returns to a Hawks team that is almost identical to last season and he should be able to put up a minimum of last season’s line, with the possibility of even better numbers.
Tim Duncan (33.6 FPS, 51.9 eFG%, 72.5 FT%, 31 MPG)
2009: 17.9pts/10.1reb/3.2ast/.6stl/1.5blk/1.8tov
It hurts me to rank Duncan this low, but at 34 years old, age may finally be catching up to him. He played a career low 31.3 minutes a game last year, but still put up good numbers. The emergence of rookie DeJuan Blair has allowed the Spurs to give Duncan plenty of rest and I expect that he’ll be rested even more this season to keep him fresh for a playoff run. As a real life player, Duncan can still bring it since his per/36 numbers don’t show any decline at all. Fantasy is different from real life basketball though. The more a player is on the court, the more fantasy value he has. Unfortunately, Duncan’s opportunity has fallen below the guys ranked above him. He still put up a good line in 2009, especially in the points (17.9 per game), rebounds (10.1 per game) and blocks (1.5 per game) categories. Duncan’s final ranking will depend on how many minutes he gets and the progression of DeJuan Blair’s game in his second season.
Zach Randolph (35.0 FPS, 49.4 eFG%, 77.8 FT%, 38 MPG)
2009: 20.8pts/11.7reb/1.8ast/1.0stl/.4blk/2.1tov
Randolph had some legal problems in the offseason and it looked like he was going to be named as the kingpin of a marijuana supply ring in Indianapolis, but it seemed to blow over and nothing really came of it. Hopefully, it’s in the past and won’t resurface. On the court, Randolph was a steady producer in the points (20.8 per game) and rebounds (11.7 per game) categories. I’ve seen many people complain that he’s just a two category player, but I’ll happily take 21 and 12 from a guy you can scoop up in the middle rounds. His shooting percentages are average and won’t kill you, but he doesn’t block many shots (.4 per game). His Jumper/Inside split is 51%/49% and he has a free throw rate of 34.8, which got him to the line 465 times. He doesn’t shoot the three ball and his defense is a little suspect. He’s solid value if you can get him in the middle rounds.
David West (30.6 FPS, 50.8 eFG%, 86.5 FT%, 37 MPG)
2009: 19.0pts/7.5reb/3.0ast/.9stl/.7blk/2.1tov
David West is one of those guys who isn’t spectacular and you don’t really notice him, but he seems to always produce a solid night. Consistent, dependable production is a good thing, as long as you can get it at a good price. West’s stat lines over the last four seasons have been remarkably consistent. He’s a good scorer (19.0 per game) and rebounder (7.5 per game) and he can also produce in the defensive categories with .9 steals per game and .7 blocks per game. West has a Jumper/Inside split of 62%/38%, but a weak free throw rate of only 27.9 which got him to the line 342 times last season where he converted at an excellent 86.5% rate. He also improved his FG% to 50.5% in 2009. He doesn’t shoot the three and his defense is average on most nights. He doesn’t have much upside from last year’s stats, but there isn’t much downside either.
LaMarcus Aldridge (29.7 FPS, 49.7 eFG%, 75.7 FT%, 38 MPG)
2009: 17.9pts/8.0reb/2.1ast/.9stl/.6blk/1.3tov
Aldridge has turned into a solid PF option, missing only 11 games in the last three seasons while averaging about 37 minutes per game. His scoring averages over the last three seasons: 17.8, 18.1 and 17.9. He doesn’t get many blocks (.6 per game) for someone who is 6’11, but his rebounding is good at 8.0 per game. Aldridge has a Jumper/Inside breakdown of 64%/36%, with a free throw rate of 26.0. He doesn’t shoot the three. He should turn in a line similar to his 2009 numbers.
Kevin Love (27.5 FPS, 47.8 eFG%, 81.5 FT%, 29 MPG)
2009: 14.0pts/11.0reb/2.3ast/.7stl/.4blk/2.0tov
Love is a very similar player to Troy Murphy. He’s an excellent rebounder with 11.0 in only 28.6 minutes per game in 2009. He is developing a three point shot, launching 1.8 per game and hitting 33%. The Timberwolves traded away Al Jefferson, so Love should move into the starting power forward spot and improve on the 29 minutes per game he played last season. With Darko Milicic at center, Love should have a monster year rebounding. He’s a little soft in the blocks category with only .4 per game. His Jumper/Inside split is 52%/48%, but his FG% is a little weak (45.0%) for a big man. He has a free throw rate of 42.7 and converts at an 81.5% rate at the line. Love should probably shoot the jumper less and work more inside to get his percentages up.
Blake Griffin – He’s looking awesome this preseason and if he can stay healthy there’s no telling how far up the rankings he could move this year. You will probably have to reach for him, but it might be worth it.
Troy Murphy (28.5 FPS, 55.1 eFG%, 79.8 FT%, 33 MPG)
2009: 14.6pts/10.2reb/2.1ast/1.0stl/.5blk/1.4tov
Update: Out with back problems.
Murphy was traded to New Jersey this offseason and he should put up good minutes and stats, especially since this is a contract year for him. He does have to contend with rookie Derrick Favors, but I think Murphy will get all the minutes he can handle. Murphy is a perimeter oriented PF with a Jumper/Inside breakdown of 72%/28%. He is an excellent three point shooter, putting up 4.6 a game last season and hitting 38%. He had a great season shooting the ball with a 55.1 eFG%, but he could see some regression back to his career 49.4 eFG%. He’s an excellent rebounder, grabbing 10.2 in only 32.6 minutes per game in 2009. If you like to build your team around three point shooters, Murphy is a good pick at the PF spot, and he’ll still get you a ton of rebounds.
Antawn Jamison (29.8 FPS, 50.2 eFG%, 64.7 FT%, 37 MPG)
2009: 18.7pts/8.4reb/1.3ast/1.1stl/.3blk/1.4tov
Now that King James has left the building, Jamison should be the first or second option on offense for the Cavs, which really helps his fantasy value. Jamison had a Usage rate of 23.9 last season and I expect that he could exceed that in 2010. Jamison’s game is a bit limited since he doesn’t provide many blocks (.3 per game) or assists (1.3 per game). His best categories are scoring (18.7 per game) and rebounding (8.4 per game). He also has a unique talent for shooting the three pointer, which is a rarity for most power forwards. He attempted 3.7 per game, hitting 34%. Keep this in mind if you like to build your H2H fantasy team around three pointers and scoring. His Jumper/Inside split is 60%/40% which shows a bit of a perimeter influence. He also doesn’t draw much contact with a free throw rate of only 29.0. Another hidden factor helping Jamison is the chance that Cleveland will be moving to a more uptempo game under new head coach Byron Scott. Jamison is one of those guys whose draft ranking really depends on what categories you are targeting with the position.
Kevin Garnett (26.4 FPS, 52.1 eFG%, 83.7 FT%, 30 MPG)
2009: 14.3pts/7.3reb/2.7ast/1.0stl/.8blk/1.5tov
Garnett is another player that it hurts for me to rank this low, but the numbers don’t lie. He’s 34 years old and those knees have a million miles on them, so he’s an injury risk. Garnett has morphed into more of a defensive player and he’s one of those guys who’s much better in real life than in fantasy, so don’t confuse the two. His minutes per game for the last three seasons: 32.8, 31.1 and 29.9. I don’t see him exceeding 30 minutes per game this season. His Jumper/Inside split of 70%/30% shows that he isn’t the same take it to the basket player that he used to be and he doesn’t draw nearly as much contact, with his free throw rate sinking to 28.6. Garnett has all the intangibles, but his fantasy game is slipping. Someone in your league is going to overpay for the Kevin Garnett name. Don’t be that guy.
Andray Blatche (24.1 FPS, 48.5 eFG%, 74.4 FT%, 28 MPG)
2009: 14.1pts/6.3reb/2.1ast/1.0stl/.9blk/2.2tov
If you want to gamble on a power forward with a big upside, give Blatche a spot on your roster, but just don’t overpay too much. He finally got a chance to shine after Antawn Jamison was traded and he put up a nice line in only 27.9 minutes per game, but he could bump up to around 35-36 minutes a night this season. His shooting (48.5 eFG% and 74.4 FT%) could use some improvement. Blatche has a Jumper/Inside split of 64%/36% and he has a surprisingly low free throw rate of 23.4 which got him to the line just 234 times. The downside for Blatche is that he is recovering from a broken foot and there is no guarantee how that is going to heal, however that could get you a lower price on draft day, so keep an eye on his injury recovery.
Jeff Green (25.5 FPS, 50.2 eFG%, 74.0 FT%, 37 MPG)
2009: 15.1pts/6.0reb/1.6ast/1.3stl/.9blk/1.6tov
Green is an overrated player. His stat line should be much better for someone who plays 37 minutes per game, but I’m going to rank him here in hopes that he takes a step forward in his development. By comparison, Kevin Garnett put up a similar line in 8 less minutes per game, and he’s 10 years older. Green’s Jumper/Inside split is 62%/38% and he doesn’t draw contact as shown by his free throw rate of 20.8, which got him to the line only 223 times where he converted at a weak 74% rate. His rebounding is weak with only 6.0 in 37.1 minutes of action per game. His defense is also suspect as the Thunder have a 107.7 defensive rating with Green on the court and a 97.7 rating with him off the court. Keep an eye on Green in the preseason to see if he is showing improvement, otherwise you can probably expect something similar to 2009’s line.
J.J. Hickson – This could be his year to break out. Cleveland is going to need scoring and rebounding and Hickson should be able to contribute in both categories. He’s going to have some bad games, but overall he should be fine. Grab him in keeper leagues for sure.
Al Harrington (25.6 FPS, 50.3 eFG%, 75.7 FT%, 31 MPG)
2009: 17.7pts/5.6reb/1.5ast/.9stl/.4blk/1.8tov
Things are a mess in Denver right now, but if it breaks right, Harrington could be a fantasy steal. Power forward Kenyon Martin is still dealing with an injury and Melo’s scoring could be on his way out with a trade, which would leave the Nuggets needing a PF and scoring. That matches Harrington perfectly. He played 30.5 minutes per game last season and averaged 17.7 points a night. He’s a good three point shooter from the PF spot, putting up 5.7 and hitting 34%. He’s got a Jumper/Inside split of 65%/35%, so he can also take it inside if he needs to. Harrington had a free throw rate of 30.8 which got him to the line 317 times where he converted at a 75.7% rate. Keep an eye on what happens in Denver and be ready to move Harrington up the rankings if he gets a starting job.
Rashard Lewis (21.5 FPS, 53.9 eFG%, 80.6 FT%, 33 MPG)
2009: 14.1pts/4.4reb/1.5ast/1.1stl/.4blk/1.5tov
Lewis wasn’t much of a fantasy player last season, posting career lows in minutes per game (32.9) and Usage (19.4). He’s turned into a defensive player who is asked to play the perimeter on offense. He’s still a great three point shooter, taking 5.9 per game and hitting 40%. His Jumper/Inside split is 83%/17% and his free throw rate is 22.4, good for only 180 trips to the line last season. His rebounding is weak for the PF position with only 4.4 per game and he swatted just .4 shots per game. He should probably be avoided unless you can get him with Small Forward eligibility or you are building your team around three point shooting.
Elton Brand (23.3 FPS, 48.0 eFG%, 73.8 FT%, 30 MPG)
2009: 13.1pts/6.1reb/1.4ast/1.1stl/1.1blk/1.7tov
Brand can’t get any worse can he? I’m hoping that a new head coach and different offensive system can rejuvenate Brand’s game, but I’m not counting on it. He managed only 30.2 minutes per game with a Usage rate of 21.7. Philadelphia’s roster is a little uncertain right now, but they may start Evan Turner at SG and Iguodala at SF which leaves Brand competing with Thaddeus Young for minutes at the PF spot. I’ve also seen some speculation that Brand might get some play at center now that Samuel Dalembert is gone. Brand contributes in the steals (1.1 per game) and blocks (1.1 per game) categories. His Jumper/Inside split is 70%/30%, with a free throw rate of 27.1. Brand’s final ranking will depend a lot on what happens in camp, so definitely keep an eye on his role before drafting him.
Luis Scola (26.9 FPS, 51.4 eFG%, 77.9 FT%, 33 MPG)
2009: 16.2pts/8.6reb/2.1ast/.8stl/.3blk/2.0tov
Yao Ming is back and that should probably tell you all you need to know about Scola’s fantasy status this season. The Rockets also have Chuck Hayes and the newly drafted Patrick Patterson who will need minutes. Scola will probably start at PF, but I don’t see him getting more than 30 minutes per game, which limits his fantasy upside. Keep an eye on Ming during the preseason and if he doesn’t look healthy, then slide Scola up the rankings.
Paul Millsap (22.6 FPS, 53.8 eFG%, 69.3 FT%, 28 MPG)
2009: 11.6pts/6.8reb/1.6ast/.8stl/1.2blk/1.4tov
Millsap was looking like a great pick until the Jazz signed Al Jefferson. Millsap’s minutes are uncertain, but I think he should get somewhere around 33-34 per game, at least until Mehmet Okur returns from injury. Once Okur returns, there is a chance that Millsap could lose minutes if Utah goes big with Okur and Jefferson on the court together. Millsap has a Jumper/Inside split of 50%/50% and he doesn’t mind drawing contact with a 36.9 free throw rate, however his FT% of 69.3 could use some improvement. He’s a help in the blocks (1.2 per game) and steals (.8 per game) categories. Hopefully, Millsap can improve on his 18.7 Usage rate, but I’d let things play out in the preseason just to make sure before using a draft pick on him, since someone in your league will undoubtably overreach here.
Carl Landry – He’s won the starting PF spot for Sacramento and makes a nice late round pickup. Very solid in points and rebounds.
Drew Gooden – He’s got the starting PF spot for Milwaukee and may even see some time at center while Bogut is out. He’s been looking pretty strong this preseason and makes a great late round flier.
Tyler Hansbrough/Josh McRoberts – They have a battle going on right now and either of them would make a great late round gamble.
Power Forwards outside the Top 20 who could make their way onto the rankings as the season approaches:
Anthony Randolph – It’s looking like Randolph may end up on the Center rankings or possibly even the SF rankings with Amare playing PF, so I’m going to wait until camp gets going to see what the Knicks are going to do with him. He’s going to be a sleeper no matter which position the Knicks give him.
Kenyon Martin – He doesn’t seem to be recovering well from knee surgery and Al Harrington will be stealing minutes.
Lamar Odom – He’s solid and should once again be the first big man off the bench in LA. Andrew Bynum’s injury recovery will dictate Odom’s minutes.
Charlie Villanueva – He was just horrible last season and only saw 23.7 minutes of court time a night. He’s going to have to pick it up to be worthy of a fantasy roster spot.
Michael Beasley – He’s now stuck behind Kevin Love, so minutes are going to be difficult to get, unless he gets moved to SF. Keep an eye on where he plays in camp.
Tyrus Thomas – He’s going to get a shot at the PF spot in Charlotte, but I’m not sure he can handle it and the Bobcats still have Boris Diaw to platoon with Thomas.
Hakeem Warrick– Warrick was brought in to fill the spot vacated by Amare Stoudemire, but he’s unproven and has to share minutes with Robin Lopez.
Jason Thompson – I think Landry and Thompson are going to get minutes, but I’d like to see what the Kings are going to do with DeMarcus Cousins before ranking them.
Other Power Forwards to consider: Boris Diaw, Taj Gibson, Udonis Haslem, Yi Jianlian, Anderson Varejao, Drew Gooden, DeJuan Blair, Chuck Hayes, Chris Andersen, Craig Smith, Jason Maxiell, Amir Johnson.
Tags: 2010 - 2011, Draft Rankings, fantasy basketball, power forward
Fantasy Basketball Daily News and Notes (8/27/10)
Aug 27, 2010 Blog
It’s still August and I participated in my first mock draft of the season last night. Yes, it is a sickness. Thanks to Jason at fBasketballBlog.com for setting it up and rounding up a good group of drafters. I’ll try to get a post up this weekend describing my roster, as well as links to each of the other teams as they also explain their draft picks. I’m also still working on the Power Forward rankings, but the mock draft took up my free time last night so I’ll try to have them done by Sunday.
Player News and Notes:
Kalenna Azubuike – Azubuike tore his patellar tendon last November and he still isn’t able to run or jump. It’s looking like he will probably miss most of camp and the first part of the season, which is a shame because it seems like D’Antoni wanted to give him the starting SG spot. Expected recovery time on that type of injury was one year, so if he turns out to be a slow healer or has any kind of setback, we might not see him on the court until Christmas. While this is bad news for Azubuike, it does bump Wilson Chandler up a bit in value.
Read the rest of this entry »
Tags: fantasy basketball
Fantasy Basketball Daily News and Notes (8/26/10)
Aug 26, 2010 Blog
Team USA – Are we half-assing this thing or what? Tyson Chandler? Lamar Odom? Eric Gordon? Kevin Love? And how do you cut Rajon Rondo from the team? Could we not find even one big man to play? Does anyone even care about this anymore? Why don’t we just send the Lakers over there to completely dominate? The bright side: It doesn’t look like any of the other countries really care about it either.
Blake Griffin – He’s expected to be ready for opening night, but should you draft him? He’s recovering from a serious injury and he is still a rookie. I think you could take a chance on him late if you already have a solid PF, but otherwise I’d let someone else gamble here. PF is fairly loaded with good picks this season, so there isn’t really any need to gamble on an injury risk as your number 1 PF.
Read the rest of this entry »
Tags: fantasy basketball