Fantasy Basketball Strategy: Fear the Blowout?
Dec 19, 2009 Blog
I received an interesting comment from one of our readers named Peter yesterday on my article discussing starting fantasy players against teams who have poor defensive ratings. Basically, his point was, if you start fantasy players who are facing weak defenses, could that strategy backfire since your fantasy player could sit if the game becomes a blowout?
I think that’s a great question and one that probably has to be answered on a player by player basis. It’s probably more of a concern for daily fantasy cash game players than it is for season long league players. If a blowout is a possibility, you should probably ask yourself the following questions before making the roster decision: At what point does a game become a blowout? Does that particular player’s coach have a habit of resting his players in blowouts? Does the team need the win so badly that they will keep the stars in just to guarantee victory? Is the player in a back to back and needs the rest? Is the team at the beginning or end of a long road trip? Is there a sufficient backup who is able to play out the game? Is the opposing team one who is capable of putting up quick offense, requiring that the fantasy player stay in for defense? Is the fantasy player a defensive liability? I’m sure there are more questions.
Another view is that if a game is a blowout, then our fantasy player already got his stats anyway, so the benching is irrelevant. In this situation, it depends on which individual player is actually defending our star. If the opposing team is weak and the individual defender guarding our star is weak, then a start is probably correct even if a blowout is likely. If the opposing team is weak, but the individual guarding our star is strong, then maybe we should pass on this matchup.
Sometimes fantasy players can acquire a full stat sheet in 30 minutes against a weak opponent, while other times it takes them 40 minutes to fill the sheet against a quality opponent. Most of the time I’d take the guaranteed 30 minutes against a weak oppponent and defender versus 40 minutes against the league’s best defense. Like most everything else, it depends.
Should you ever bench fantasy players that might end up on the losing side of a blowout? I’d guess if a game is anywhere under 20 points difference in score, that just about every team in the NBA would be fighting at least half way through the fourth quarter to try and make a game of it. In fact, that situation might actually help your star player if he can pick up the pace and start bombing away to make up the deficit. If a blowout is 25 or more points and you have the ability to confidently predict that before hand, then you should likely be in Vegas rather than wasting your skill on fantasy basketball.
Personally, I think it’s a rare situation that would justify passing on a good matchup due to the fear of a blowout. However, a blowout and subsequent benching could harm your fantasy results, so maybe it does justify some concern and thought just to make sure all the bases are covered. Good comment, Peter.
Tags: Advice, fantasy basketball, Strategy