My GMTR Keeper League Draft Results and Analysis (10/26/09)
Oct 25, 2009 Blog
I had the GiveMeTheRock.com Keeper League draft on Sunday afternoon and it was a great draft with some pretty fun guys. The competition is going to be tough in the league but I stuck to a plan and I like my team. Keeper leagues are a little different because you definitely have to give some thought when building your team and what strategy to use for your keepers. The league is a 12 team H2H weekly roster league. We are allowed to keep 3 players for next year, but those players have to be drafted in round 4 or later. All the players in rounds 1, 2 and 3 are automatically returned to the draft pool next season.
I had two choices of strategy with this H2H draft, either go small and try to capture the PTS/3PM/STL/AST categories or go big and try to build the team based on REB/BLK/FG%/TOV. I tend to take the view that FT% is a random category in a H2H league where a week is such a small sample size.
So I fire up Yahoo and find that I’m drafting in 3rd position. Good spot but it doesn’t really help me decide on my strategy. Before I started the draft the only question I had was whether I would go big with Dwight Howard if Chris Paul fell to me at #3. He didn’t.
Round 1 – Dwyane Wade. Paul came off the board first and James followed quickly. Wade is a good shot blocker and good rebounder, so taking him over Howard was a no brainer. I could still go big if the opportunity presented itself since Wade has the blocks. The rest of Round 1 in order: Durant, Bryant, Granger, Howard, Roy, Nowitzki, D. Williams, Stoudemire, Nash.
Round 2 – Kidd, Calderon, Bosh, Billups, Iguodala, Al Jefferson, Pau Gasol, Lopez, Garnett – now me. I didn’t expect to have to make a decision on my strategy with this pick, but now I have no choice. Tim Duncan is still there if I want to build on the blocks and rebounds. Lopez was already gone so my next pick, 5 spots later, would probably have to be LaMarcus Aldridge. If I could have got Aldridge as a keeper I would have gone this route, but as I sat there thinking it occurred to me that there were more guys in rounds 5,6,7 and 8 who were keeper material that didn’t fit the ‘big man’ strategy. So now I look down and try to find several players to queue up to make my next two picks fit the ‘small’ strategy. Joe Johnson (qualifies at PG/SG/SF in Yahoo) is there. I take him. Good 3’s, good assists, great rebounds from the PG spot and good steals numbers. Good PTS as a bonus. The rest of the round goes: David West, Harris.
Round 3 – Lewis and Duncan go. Duncan comes off the board so now I’m full steam ahead on the small ball strategy. ( As an aside, had I gone with big ball, Aldridge and D. Lee were still there, but my next pick in that strategy was Rajon Rondo who went off before my next pick.) Now I look down to see what I’ve got queued and find Paul Pierce, Carmelo Anthony and Vince Carter. Carter had the better stats last year but it still nags me that he might not be called on to do as much with Orlando who already have Nelson, Lewis and Howard. Melo is a little weak in 3’s and only qualifies at SF. I take the safe play with Paul Pierce who qualifies at SG and SF. He fits the small ball strategy perfectly with good threes, good assists, solid rebounding from the guard spot, good steals and solid in points. I’m planning on keeping him in a guard spot. Wade, J. Johnson and Pierce, at least they work together. Solid 3’s, good points, solid rebounds from the guard spot, good assists and steals. The rest of the round: Kev. Martin, Wallace, Carter, Aldridge, Lee, Murphy, Butler, Anthony, R. Allen.
Round 4 – Rondo, Ellis, Rose, Marion, E. Gordon, Josh Smith, Mayo, Horford, Westbrook – now me. This is the first round for keepers. I’ve got Baron Davis, Hedo Turkoglu, Jason Richardson and Rudy Gay queued up. There really wasn’t much decison here. It’s Rudy Gay all the way. I just couldn’t see the others as keepers, but most importantly, Gay qualifies at SF and PF. Rudy has good 3’s, points and steals. He can also block some shots. His rebounding is subpar for the PF spot, but not terribly so. He has SF stats that I get to use in the PF spot and he fits my strategy perfectly. The rest of the round: J. Nelson, Arenas.
Round 5 – Biedrins, Ariza – now me. I got off track with this next pick. I still had Baron, Richardson and Turkoglu queued, but then I started thinking about my center spot because there were 18 players to be chosen before my next pick and I know some of the teams were going with a big man strategy. A center run certainly had to occur. I wanted Al Harrington because he fit my strategy so perfectly, but I just don’t see him as a keeper. I gambled that he would slide down the draft. I looked through the center list and guess who is still sitting there – Elton Brand. Yes, Elton ’37 games in the last 2 years’ Brand. My twisted mind somehow rationalized that he would make a great keeper after winning comeback player of the year in 2009-2010. And I hit the draft button. Damn, what was I thinking? I just bet my whole season on Elton Brand. Damn. Damn. Damn. The rest of the round: Bynum, Richardson, Okur, Mo Williams, Griffin, Villanueva, Parker, B. Gordon, Bargnani.
Round 6 – Randolph, Harrington (Damn!), B. Davis, Nene, T. Young, A. Jamison, Terry, W. Chandler, Millsap – now me. Harrington doesn’t slide to me. Well, at least I was right about the run on centers, but it didn’t make me feel any better about taking Brand. Ok, so now I’m looking for a third keeper and a big guy who fits my strategy. Jeff Green SF/PF. Good 3’s, PTS, rebounds, steals and qualifies at PF and SF. Definitely young keeper material. I lock up Green. Ok, now I’m evened out on guards and forwards and I even have a center. I need another center since it is definitely clear that there are several teams who are using a big strategy. If I skip taking a center with my next pick, it’s 18 picks until I get to go again and I’m pretty sure most of the centers will be gone by then. I need one now. The rest of the round: Scola and S. Jackson.
Round 7 – Boozer, A. Miller – now me. Damn, I’m right, 4 picks and already two more center eligible players are gone. I felt like I didn’t have much choice here but to go with a center. I wanted to take Oden, but I just couldn’t stomach the injury risk, especially since I already had an injury risk in Brand at center. Same with Okafor and Bogut. I needed dependable, I ended up with Zach Randolph. 20/10. He doesn’t have much competion in Memphis and he will get the minutes. Not crazy about he pick, but I just couldn’t gamble on that second center spot. The rest of the round: Salmons, Ty. Thomas, Ginobili, Diaw, Hawes, Barbosa, Okafor, JR Smith, Noah, Thompson.
Round 8 – Oden, Camby, Ford, R. Brewer, Chalmers, Artest, Marvin Williams, Redd – now me. Am I the only one playing small ball here? Here is a feeling I’ve never felt: I’m now thankful for Zach Randolph. So now after a 3o minute trip through big man land I’m good on PF and both centers and I look at my queue for the first time since the trip began and OMG!! Hedo Turkoglu is still sitting there. Round 8, small ball perfect Turkoglu is drafted by me. Maybe I am the only one using the small ball strategy. The rest of the round: Sessions, R. Wallace.
Round 9 – Beasley, Shaq – now me. They continue to pound the big men. After my big man excursion, it’s time to get back to some guards. I need to keep the strategy going with 3’s, assists, points and steals. Mike Bibby is still sitting there all alone. The excess of big man strategy teams has left some great small ball players. I’m not a huge Bibby fan and I realize that Jamal Crawford is going to eat some minutes, but Bibby in round 9 is a fine enough risk to take here. The rest of the round: Conley, Morrow, B. Miller, Odom, Stuckey, Love, Dalembert, Battier, Robinson.
Round 10 – Hibbert, Rush, Jefferson, C. Lee, M. Gasol, Bogut, Felton, Tyreke Evans, Josh Howard – now me. I need a keeper here. Jennings, Augustin or Sweet Lou Williams. Easy choice. Sweet Lou it is. Good 3’s, steals, points and assists. Philly shipped off A. Miller, so Williams is the man, for better or worse. Definitely worth a gamble as a keeper. Now I need to fill some bench spots. The rest of the round: Kaman, J. Crawford.
Round 11 – C. Andersen, S. Curry – now me. Worst pick of the draft right here. I went looking for a backup center who had a starting job and could step in if Brand or Randolph went down. Needed a scorer. I wanted Channing Frye but I’m just not a believer. I should have just gambled and taken him. I got Jermaine O’Neal. The point was to get a dependable scoring starter to step up if my other two guys went down. Jermaine O’Neal. Could I have selected a more risky injury prone player? Damn. At least I have a backup center. The rest of the round: Flynn, Jennings, Brooks, Augustin, Deng, Turiaf, Maggette, Kirilenko, Haywood.
Round 12 – M. Miller, Duhon, Thornton, Douglas-Roberts, Kenyon Martin, Frye (Damn), G. Hill, T. Chandler, Perkins – now me. I need a SF/PF backup. I took another guy who fits my strategy pretty well, Tayshaun Prince. I think he’s underrated and I’ll gladly take him as a solid backup in round 12. Good 3’s, points, rebounds and assists. The rest of the round: Ming (WTF?) and Foye.
Round 13 (Final Round) – Harden, Hinrich – now me. Ok, now the clock hits me and I’m still stewing about my stupid J. O’Neal pick, so I figure the only thing to do is use another bench spot to at least grab another center who has a starting job and can get some rebounds and steals. I go with Anderson Varejao who qualifies at PF and C. The rest of the round: Jianlian, C. Brewer, McGrady, Fernandez, Del. West, Azubuike, Hamilton, Blatche, Gomes.
I’m pretty happy with the small ball strategy and the final team looks like this: PG J. Johnson, SG Paul Pierce, G Dwyane Wade, SF Rudy Gay, PF Jeff Green, F Hedo Turkoglu, C Elton Brand, C Zach Randolph, UTIL Lou Williams, UTIL Mike Bibby. Good 3’s, points, assists, and steals. Rebounds are decent for a small ball team. Percentages will be a crapshoot on any given week. Turnover category is weak. Should be a good enough team to go 5-4 most weeks.